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Gartner's Hype Cycle
There are five distinct categories that occur in the emergence
of any new technology:
- Technology trigger. A breakthrough, public demonstration,
product launch or other event that generates significant press
and industry interest.
- Peak of inflated expectations. a phase of overenthusiasm and
unrealistic projections during which a flurry of publicized
activity by technology leaders results in some successes but
more failures as the technology is pushed to its limits. The
only enterprises making money at this stage are conference organizers
and magazine publishers.
- Trough of disillusionment. The point at which the technology
becomes unfashionable and the press abandons the topic, because
the technology did not live up to its overinflated expectations.
- Slope of enlightenment. Focused experimentation and solid
hard work by an increasingly diverse range of organizations
lead to a true understanding of the technology's applicability,
risks and benefits. Commercial off-the-shelf methodologies and
tools become available to ease the development process.
- Plateau of productivity. The real-world benefits of the technology
are demonstrated and accepted. Tools and methodologies are increasingly
stable as they enter their second and third generation. The
final height of the plateau varies according to whether the
technology is broadly applicable or only benefits a niche market.
The Gartner Hype Cycle places technologies and the strategies
they enable into a natural and recurring life cycle. The location
of CRM itself in the Hype Cycle leads to significant implications
for vendors and users alike.
The Gartner Hype Cycle (see Figure 1) is a device that lays out
the path that technologies generally take, from their initial
introduction into the market until their eventual maturation into
useful components of broader solutions.
More information on the Gartner
site
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